Strada Education Foundation just released its 2026 State Opportunity Index, a state-by-state look at how well college connects to a career. The headline number held steady: 70% of recent public college graduates are estimated to get a positive return on college within 10 years. That means 3 in 10 don't. The full findings are on Strada's site, published November 10.
What is the State Opportunity Index? The State Opportunity Index is an annual report from Strada Education Foundation that measures how effectively all 50 states and Washington, D.C., connect postsecondary education to career opportunity. Now in its third year, it tracks clear outcomes, quality coaching, affordability, work-based learning and employer alignment, with state-level data from 2024 to 2026.
I read this one closely because it's the closest thing we have to a national report card on whether college pays off. A lot of it is good news. States are cutting the hours students have to work to cover tuition, and more of them are finishing on time. The number I keep coming back to is the one that didn't move.
The Numbers
- 70% see a positive return. Within 10 years of graduation, 70% of recent public college graduates are estimated to come out ahead, similar to last year.
- 73% vs. 60%. Bachelor's degree earners reach a positive return 73% of the time. Associate degree earners reach it 60% of the time.
- 43% had paid work experience. That's the share of graduating seniors at public bachelor's institutions with at least one paid internship, co-op, practicum, research role or apprenticeship. Also flat.
- 6 in 10 work in degree-level jobs. Six in 10 recent bachelor's graduates hold jobs that typically require a degree, the same as a year earlier.
The Data Exists. Nobody Can See It.
This is the part of the report that should bother every president. Strada says an integrated education and career data system is now the established norm across states. Yet most states still don't provide insight into the occupations their graduates end up in. And the area with the most room for growth is giving students data on what graduates of their program earn and where they land.
So the pipes are built, and the answer students and families actually want still doesn't come out of them. That gap matters more every year. We already saw that 1 in 4 students dropped a college flagged for low earnings on the FAFSA. Earnings data is starting to move enrollment, whether colleges are ready for it or not.
For Career Services and Institutional Leaders
Outcomes by program, for every graduate
Prentus tracks career outcomes for every graduate, not only the ones who answer a survey. See employers, job titles, and placement by program in one record, and spot the students who are drifting before they graduate.
Washington Is Grading the Same Thing
Strada is measuring a question the federal government is now writing into law. The OBBBA earnings test ties program eligibility to what graduates earn. Workforce Pell asks short-term programs to show 70% completion and 70% placement. If a college can't see which of its students are in that 3 in 10, it will find out from a federal data release years after those students have left.
The fix starts with knowing your own numbers by program, not the state average. Our earnings accountability readiness checklist walks through the data to collect for each program and who should own it.
What Career Services Should Do Now
- Find your 3 in 10 early. Track job search activity, applications and offers before graduation, so the students drifting toward a weak first job show up while you can still help.
- Push paid experience past 43%. In Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Virginia, most seniors have paid work-based learning. Treat that as the bar, not the exception.
- Report outcomes by program. The associate degree gap (60% vs. 73%) hides big differences between programs. Leaders need to see them one program at a time.
- Give students the numbers. Strada says program-level earnings and outcomes data is where states lag most. A college that shows students where its graduates land has an answer before anyone asks.
Seventy percent is a decent number, and the states that beat it are worth studying. But every college has its own version of the 3 in 10, and the ones who can name those students before graduation are the ones who can change the number.
If you want placement, employers, and job titles by program for every graduate in one place, let's talk.
